When it comes to MLB wagering lines on American League games, I am finding this season harder than usual to bet on. Why? Because putting mildly the American League is awful this year. Aside from the Houston Astros, the AL has been decidedly mediocre and erratic.
And that is a problem for bettors as handicapping MLB wagering lines is based on consistency which in turn helps profits. Baseball is a game of stats and there is a certain data predictability that a long season and a KPI friendly sport can deliver. However, that has been tougher to do in the American League this season- so let’s take a closer look.
MLB Wagering Lines – American League
When it comes to betting on baseball in the American League this year I have become a little more conservative. It seems like only now that teams like the Cleveland Indians and the New York Yankees are rounding into some sort of form. Conversely, teams like the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers continue to under perform.
American League Game Lines – Pointspreads
I don’t like betting baseball pointspreads when teams are erratic or inconsistent. I much prefer betting the point spread in MLB when teams are in solid form- and in particular the hitters. When teams are under performing, and specifically under hitting, then point spreads become much riskier.
Money Line Odds – Major League Baseball
A better way to bet sides in baseball with struggling teams is with moneylines in my opinion. The bookies have already done all the work of handicapping the game and all we need to do is add our own analysis on top.
A few things to consider and keep an eye on when looking at money lines and MLB wagering lines in general. Firstly, the online sportsbook is the same as a regular book in that they must balance their action. When big fan favorites like the New York Yankees are playing a less high profile team like the Tampa Bay Rays, you can almost always count on the odds being affected by money. I find the odds to be “truer” between average teams from average markets.
Now, you can use this to your advantage as we discussed during the NBA Playoffs by betting against a public money favorite. By doing this you often are getting better than “true odds” when you bet on the underdog as the lines are too much in favor of the top team. But use discernment here- if the line doesn’t seem to be offering you extra value then avoid the game all together.
Online Baseball Lines – Odds Analysis
In addition, pitching match ups are critical in MLB wagering lines. How to bet pitching matches for profit I will leave for another post, but again the bookies will have figured in the pitchers when putting together money lines. Form is super key for pitchers so make sure that both pitchers are healthy and playing well, or not, when handicapping your bets.
American League MLB – Online Wagering
This year in the American League pitching hasn’t been as much of a problem as hitting. Multiple teams in the AL are hitting below last year’s totals and this actually helps with moneyline bets in my opinion. I find it easier to handicap pitchers than an entire team’s hitters as there is just less variables. So with less runs, it really becomes more about pitching and whether there is any public money movement.
At the end of the day always trust your own analysis. I personally think that with how the American League is shaping up this year that tactical money line bets are the way to go. In the next few articles I will also take a look at point spreads and Over/Under bets and how they do in the AL.
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