College basketball moneylines might be the way to go during March Madness for a number of pretty solid reasons. As discussed in my post on March Madness point spread betting, the inherent volatility of the tournament means practicing some discretion with your spread wagers.
Moneyline bets are a much better way to bet on college basketball, particularly during the 2017 March Madness tournament. College basketball moneylines give the bettor a much more stable line to bet as there is a lot of parity by the time the Sweet Sixteen rolls around. Let’s take a look at how we can make some smart March Madness money line picks.
College Basketball Moneylines – March Madness Betting
For the purposes of simple review, moneyline bets are where you bet on one team or another to win without the benefit of any odds for or against. In essence you are straight up picking the winner. Now why not take or give odds during the March Madness tournament as you do in the rest of the NCAA basketball season?
Well the simple truth is that a winner take all tournament played over three weeks is very different than a succession of regular season games. During the regular season you often look for point spreads to shade action based on team strength. However, you may need to throw some classical team handicapping techniques out the window during March Madness.
College Basketball Betting – March Madness
Typical point spread handicapping does well when based on lots of data over a long period of time. Moneyline bets do better when there is parity either from team strengths or circumstances- and March Madness is all about circumstances. To be sure in the Round of 64 big favorites are still going to win the vast majority of their match ups, so if you care going to bet pointspreads then that is the time.
However by the Sweet Sixteen round any team can win and upsets will be common. Bookmakers tend to balance the risk by compressing point spreads (which makes sense on one hand) so as to reduce their exposure. Conversely this means that often there just isn’t enough value to bet a pointspread either way. Occasionally, as I wrote yesterday, the books will overvalue big favorites during the mid to late tournament but that is more often than not the exception.
March Madness Odds – Moneyline Lines
Now if you can get a point or two in your favor, and the pointspread juice is small, then always certainly consider it. But be very careful about paying for any points on a favorite. Many a good NCAA March Madness basketball bet has been lost on a last minute heroic 3 pointer from the dog. My recommendation is to not give away any points from the Sweet Sixteen on- unless the college basketball moneylines juice is prohibitive and you are really feeling the favorite to win.
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