March Madness picks will make or break your NCAA basketball season as there is the potential for the biggest profits and the biggest losses. Handicapping a three week tournament full of upsets, beat downs, and everything in between is not an easy prospect. The key is to look at momentum and and match-ups- and riding the fine line between your gut and your brain.
I thought I would start by looking at March Madness point spread betting in this article, as there are some specific considerations to be aware of in a setting like a tournament. Let’s take look at some March Madness picks that should pay off by the end of the tournament.
March Madness Picks – Pointspread Betting
NCAA basketball betting is tough at the best of times and even more so during March Madness. Teams that have dominated all year find themselves fighting the buzzer to stave off elimination. Tough match-ups fail to materialize as teams experience injuries and become vulnerable to upsets or under performing.
Point Spread College Basketball Betting – March Madness
Whatever the reason, March Madness wagers can be a hazardous proposition and none more so than the pointspread. Point spread lines tend to be best handicapped during a regular season where bookmakers can take a look at large amounts of data. That benefit also extends to the bettor who can reasonably decide on a spread bet by looking at team’s performance over time.
However in a winner take all tournament situation, point spread bets become very vulnerable as there is a lot of fast moving variables. There is of course opportunity in chaos and so make sure to look for point spreads that are out of order. Typically this would be in spreads that are too small as opposed to too large. I think handicappers struggle with over valuating strong teams during March Madness- particularly in the mid and later stages of the tournament where things get tighter.
March Madness Pointspread Lines – NCAA Basketball Odds
Ultimately I find that March Madness pointspreads, particularly as the tournament progresses and weaker teams are eliminated, typically become very lean in terms of profit opportunities. This is less to do with the bookmakers not shading the lines properly, and more to do with the natural cliffhanger nature of the March Madness tournament. There is so much drama and emotion packed into a short, compressed time frame- and that means upsets and nail biters. If you are on the right side of the spread, then your March Madness picks look like inspired wagers. But when you lose on a last minute impossible layup from a kid that will never see the NBA, then you feel like a fool. For help, take a look at last week’s article on my picks for the 2017 March Madness tournament.
Ultimately, I am more of a moneyline bettor when it comes to March Madness which I will talk about in my next blog. In short, when it comes to NCAA basketball pointspread betting look for lines that are too long on favorites mid and late tournament- and take dogs that are under priced!
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