My March Madness tips to date have proven a bit of a mixed bag, but I am comforted by the fact that everyone else has also struggled getting some wins. Yesterday, I took a look at the South Carolina and Gonzaga matchup which I think will be tighter than the +6.5 spread indicates. Read about that here if you haven’t already. So let’s take a look at some March Madness tips which should make us some money.
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March Madness Tips – North Carolina Tarheels vs. Oregon Ducks
Ok back to business. Today, I want to look at the numbers for the Oregon Ducks and the University of North Carolina Tarheels. Both teams have played well to date, with the Ducks being giant killers in their upset of Kansas. UNC is always a powerful program and contender so this should be an interesting one.
Best Final Four Bets – Oregon Ducks
The Oregon “Mighty” Ducks, as I now refer to them after blowing up my bracket, are a quality team from a quality sports school. The PAC 12’s top team this year has been getting better and better over the course of the 2000’s and it seems to be paying off. The PAC 12 is no easy ride with quality teams like UCLA, USC, and Arizona to navigate through. Also, having the poise, skills, and composure to blow out the Kansas Jayhawks by 14 points says a whole lot about this team. However, they are currently +5 dogs on the pointspread so the bookmakers might be seeing something that I am not.
To be fair, the Ducks have never made it to the Final Four before and have only seven Elite Eight showings including last year. They are newcomers to this level of intensity whereas the Tarheels have been in this spotlight many times before. The Ducks however seem unflappable and I am wondering if taking them as +5 underdogs isn’t a bad idea.
Final Four Lines – University of North Carolina Tarheels
The University of North Carolina Tarheels on the other hand have swagger, an elite level NCAA men’s basketball program, and plenty of winning history during March Madness. As -210 moneyline favorites against the Ducks, UNC has been given the green light (no pun intended) by bookies around the nation. And that is most likely with good cause given their performance to date- they looked amped up getting past Kentucky in one of the most exciting games of the tourney. As a reflection of that UNC are the favorites to win the 2017 NCAA Championship tournament at +125 while Oregon is a healthy +375.
However, I think there is an element of “public money” hidden in both the moneyline and in the pointspread. What I mean by that is that the handicappers know that there will be massive public interest in betting on the proven favorite UNC, and so they are getting ahead of the money by offsetting the odds. Now, to be clear, that is just smart bookmaking and also one of my best March Madness tips.
As such, this game will most likely be closer than five points and just a matter of which side of things you prefer- UNC on the moneyline or Oregon on the spread. The total or Over/Under is set at 152 which seems a bit high, but again I stay away from totals so proceed with your own analysis.
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