Typically your best football picks are the ones that are the result of straight forward traditional handicapping approach. By that I mean analyzing team form, factoring in injuries, and looking at previous matchups. This is the bread and butter of football handicapping, and what allows us to turn a profit over the course of any given Sunday and then over the length of a season.
One of the things that helps you with your best football picks is the consistency of the teams involved. When a team is well run from the front office down there tends to be a cohesive vision that allows for the team to prosper regardless of player and coaching turnover. Teams will naturally go through cycles of boom and bust, but good organizations will always find a way to excel.
Best Football Picks – New England Patriots
Few teams have embodied that truth as much as the New England Patriots. To be fair they have been blessed by a generational quarterback in the person of Tom Brady, but Robert Kraft and team are clearly committed to excellence. Add to that mixture the Sith Lord of Football Coaching, Bill Belichick, and you have a powerful a team that has won five Super Bowls in the last 15 seasons.
So what does that have to do with Saturday’s Patriots game against the Detroit Lions? Well not necessarily a ton given that it is Week 3 of the NFL Preseason, but it will give us a look at some of the inner workings of Boston’s finest heading into the regular season. And, errr, Detroit too.
NFL Preseason Odds – New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Now I can hear you asking, “but aren’t the Patriots 0-2 in the Preseason?” Yes that is true and if it has created any doubt in your mind as to whether they will have another strong year then you have just been Belichicked. With a fairly mature squad Belichick is choosing to sit most of his players. Although Brady did take some snaps and led a touch down drive, the Pats are in no way worried about trying to generate any momentum out of the preseason. That’s what desperate teams do. The Patriots are never desperate and they are going to have a huge season.
NFL Super Bowl Futures – Odds to Win
How do we know? Well for starters the bookies have them as +280 to win the Super Bowl which is crazy! When you are talking about best football picks it doesn’t get much better than that. And the Detroit Lions? Well a teeny bit longer odds to win the Super Bowl at +6000.
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions – Best Football Picks
But the preseason is the preseason and the best football picks tend to be a little tougher when it comes to NFL betting online. For this Saturday’s game I expect Tom Brady to get a little more playing time to loosen up the shoulder and get back in the flow. It also looks like Pats running back Mike Gillislee will get into the game which should show us how bad his hamstring injury might be.
The Detroit Lions on the other hand remain a team struggling for identity. Quality QB Mathew Stafford continues to be their franchise player, but the Lions have really struggled to build a team around him. The Lions had a decent year in 2016 going 9-7 and losing to the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. Can they do as well this year? I suspect they might look at little more like 8-8 and the fight will be for a Wild Card Spot.
The line for Saturday’s game has the Pats as -2.5 pointspread favorites in Detroit which means the bookies think Brady is going to play probably a half. The moneyline is +125 on the Lions which is tight, and I think the spread offers plenty of value on New England. The Over Under is 43.5 which seems a bit high and I like the Under here. I suspect most of us will actually be watching the McGregor vs. Mayweather fight while this game is on- but it never hurts to have a little side action!
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