The best NFL odds are those which give us as bettors enough room to creatively bet, while still leaving the online sportsbooks enough wiggle room to win as well. There is a very narrow space that both sharper bettors and the bookmakers can occupy simultaneously and is essentially win win.
What do I mean by that? Well the best NFL odds aren’t necessarily the ones that are clear errors or lines that are off- those types of online NFL betting opportunities just don’t come around that often. As experienced advantage bettors we are looking for that sweet spot where public money pressures the bookies just off the right number and we have an opportunity to turn a better than average profit. This most often happens in underdog situations, but can also can happen with favorites as we will see later in the article.
A perfect example was my pick for the Houston Texans to beat the 14 point spread against the New England Patriots in NFL Week 3. It is rare that an NFL team is that outclassed and whenever you see a pointspread that big you should almost always bet against it barring a key injury (which is why you shouldn’t take the Indianapolis Colts as +13.5 dogs against Seattle this weekend). Let’s take a look at an NFL Week 4 game to review a similar but slightly different opportunity.
Best NFL Odds – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
This may not seem as obvious of a choice but I think there is a opportunity in this game. The spread currently sits at -3.5 for the Jacksonville Jaguars as they head to New Jersey to take on the New York Jets. This may not seem that spectacular of a spread betting opportunity given my Pats example above, but like many things in life it isn’t the size of the point spread but how you use it.
Best NFL Betting Odds – Jacksonville Jaguars
So what is going on here? The Jets have been pretty pathetic so far this year and that is not being mean spirited- the Jets themselves knew this would not be a winning season. The Gang Green are 1-2 after playing a solid game last weekend against the Miami Dolphins winning 20-6. But the Dolphins are about as bad as the Jets, and the Jets lost handily to the Buffalo Bills and the Oakland Raiders in Weeks 1 and 2.
The 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars on the other hand are returning from playing in London where they annihilated the very tough Baltimore Ravens 44-7. The Ravens pride themselves on defense so that was a huge blowout. With young QB Blake Bortles rounding in to shape, and with this year’s addition of LSU’s star running back in Leonard Fournette, the Jaguars actually have a potent offense.
Given all of the above I don’t see how the -3.5 pointspread makes much sense, and I expect this line to drift out as we get closer to Sunday so grab these best NFL odds now. I think the Jags cover this spread with ease and I suspect that bookmakers are keeping it closer than normal because the public is unsure of how to bet them. The Over Under is 38 which seems low and the moneyline is +160 on the Jets. I say take the surprisingly good Jaguars on the spread and enjoy watching the game and counting your money. As always, make sure to check out the Jaguars vs. Jets prop bets for any weak lines.
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