While compiling my football winning bets for NFL Week 5, I took stock of the last month of football picks and results. On the whole I am happy with how the season has gone, and aside from not taking my own advice on occasion it has been a profitable start.
As the 2016 NFL season starts to round into shape certain aspects of figuring out football winning bets gets easier. Team rosters are solidifying, coaches and players are in sync, and general performance trends at the organizational level are clearer.
Conversely, finding value for your football winning bets can be tougher as bookmakers are zeroing in on team performance and handicapping. So it is a trade off but let’s see what value is out there this week.
Football Winning Bets – Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos
As the season matures I tend to make more bets as I am more comfortable with my player and squad reads. For NFL Week 5 I will start with my favorite team of the 2016 season- the Denver Broncos. The Broncos face the Atlanta Falcons at Mile High Stadium and are currently listed as -5 favorites on the point spread.
It sounds very odd to say this about the defending Super Bowl Champions, but the Broncos are outperforming expectations. I took them to both shut down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and hit the Under last week which they did beautifully. It is becoming clearer with every game how much of a drag Peyton Manning most likely was on the team last season. Trevor Siemian has done an excellent job along with the outstanding Denver D, and if he can stay healthy they are going far this year.
So my first football winning bets for NFL Week 5 is to take the Under 46.5 in the Broncos Falcons game. The Denver D shut down the Bucs ,who competed in a shootout with Atlanta, which leads me to believe they can shut down Atlanta’s league leading offense. The Falcons on the other hand have a porous defense, but the Broncos are only the 21st best offense in the NFL. Put those two together and you have a narrow Denver win with low scores all around. Note- if Trevor Siemian does not start for the Broncos then ignore this game.
NFL Winning Bets – Buffalo Bills vs. LA Rams
I don’t usually truck with really mediocre teams as they are hard to handicap and you have no clue if they will actually show up on the day. Case in point, the Buffalo Bills and LA Rams. Both teams have looked both awful and talented in different games. Heck the Bills beat Belichick! But sometimes when you have two awful teams playing each other there can be some opportunity for wagering value.
I like the Under here in this contest even though it is already at a mere 38.5. Why? Well for two reasons. Firstly, the LA Rams have had some solid defensive performances as have the Bills who recently blanked the Patriots. They are not great defenses to be clear, but they have the potential to show up on the day. Secondly, both teams have pretty mediocre Os that are ranked 28th (Bills) and 32nd (Rams) respectively so the the likelihood of big scores is mitigated.
At the end of the day Buffalo has struggled to score on the road, even in their victory over the Pats, and the Rams’ D has been solid at home. I think the potential for an under 38.5 is pretty darn solid and could be a nice bet here.
I will most likely have a few more NFL Week 5 football winning bets to follow and I think there is still some good value opportunities available. As with all of my recommendations make sure to include your own handicapping, as I still buy discounted meat at the supermarket.
Best Online Sportsbook – Huge Refer A Friend Bonuses
Football betting is just getting fun so join RealBet today and take advantage of our 100% to $500 Welcome Bonus when you do! Tell your friends about RealBet and get a 25% to $300 Refer-a-Friend Bonus to sweeten the deal. RealBet Real Roughing The Passer.