As I sit here and consider NFL Thursday Night football betting odds I am feeling a little more bearish than bullish. I ignored my own advice on the weekend and took some short point spreads and paid the price. However, neither my Green Bay Packers’ pick nor my Washington Redskins’ bet would have won on the moneyline so I feel some cold comfort there.
I decided to put my laser like focus on the NFL Thursday Night football game in which the New England Patriots face off against the Houston Texans at Foxborough. Given my .500 performance last weekend, please make sure to add in your own handicapping to my suggestions!
NFL Thursday Night Football – Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
I did bet the Patriots and they looked very solid against a very bad team- until Jimmy Garoppolo got injured. The Tom Brady pretty boy backup had a very strong game against Arizona, and had the game against the Miami Dolphins well in hand until his shoulder was driven into the turf. After that Miami went on a strong run and made up some points, although the outcome of the game wasn’t really in much doubt as the Pats had such a huge lead to work with.
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The Houston Texans had a strong outing on Sunday and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 19-12. Although it wasn’t exactly a highlight reel game for either team, the sometimes inconsistent and puzzling Texans looked confident and strong at home against a decent team. I stayed away from this game as I didn’t really like any of the lines, but I thought this was really Kansas’ game to lose. It came down to the final minutes so the game was not without some drama and interest.
However, new QB Brock Osweiler didn’t look all that great with a couple of interceptions and some poor ball control. The Texans D led by J.J. Watt was the key here along with KC’s inability to dominate offensively. Houston is now 2-0 in the AFC South and any discussion about reaching the playoffs is valid.
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So the million dollar question is: can the Houston Texans beat the New England Patriots in Massachusetts on NFL Thursday Night football? The spread currently has the Texans as -1 favorites with the moneyline to be determined. Given that playing at home is usually worth 3 points, this game is a pick’em and means that the bookmakers think that there isn’t much difference between the two teams. Gillette Stadium is a notoriously difficult place to play so factor that in to your decision making.
Here is why I like both the Under 41 and the Texans on the point spread. I think what the Patriots and Dolphins’ game showed us is that with Jimmy Garoppolo the Patriots were still a good team. With third stringer Jacoby Brisset at the helm they struggled to make plays and the Fins almost made a game of it. So with a neutered offense and a 25th ranked D, I think the Pats are vulnerable.
Texas on the other hand has the 3rd best defense in the league, and without Garoppolo the Patriots will be running the ball a lot. Firstly that weakens their chances to not only win, but also means that the Total for the Over Under should go under 41. Conversely, Houston’s offense has looked a bit meh, and even though the Pats D is weak you have to factor in Bill “Megamind” Belichick’s coaching mojo.
In summary, before I completely think myself in circles, you can take the Texans on the -1 point spread and you can also take the Under 41 total. Of the two bets I like the Under 41 best. BUT…there is a rumbling in the Belichickian fortress of solitude that Garoppolo may be a last minute start. This is most likely just the normal black magic tactics of William the Terrible but beware- if Garoppolo starts then toss the pointspread bet as there is just too many variables. However, I still like the Under because even if Jimmy starts his offensive abilities have to be diminished.
As with all things, pray to the gods of football and good luck!
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