My NFL top picks for this coming Sunday contain a mix of gimmes and perhaps a few surprises. There are a few interesting things going on in the 2017 NFL football season that are making this a unique year. In particular, there are a lot of challenges and change happening in the QB role across the league that are definitely playing into my NFL top picks every week.
Of course this is mixed in with the usual handicapping factors such as injuries, suspensions, and schedules etc. However, I think the QB situation in the league hasn’t been in this much flux for a number of years. With so many new quarterbacks, and so many unproductive veteran ones, teams are struggling to find rhythm and balance heading into the NFL Week 3 weekend games. So let’s see if we can exploit any of this for our own gain!
NFL Top Picks – Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
This might seem like an odd game to pick but I think there are some interesting factors going on here. To be clear, I don’t expect the Texans to win this game. I do however think they will beat the current +14 pointspread and it does have something to do with QBs. Firstly, although the New England Patriots are dealing with some key injuries to the likes of Gronk and Danny Amendola they are still most likely Super Bowl bound. Brady is back in form after a shaky Week 1 and so he isn’t a problem. It is almost a certainty that the Gronkmeister will play and again the Pats will win this game- no question.
NFL Prop Bets – DeShaun Watson
So what is the betting opportunity related to QBs here? I think DeShaun Watson will have a bigger impact on this game than handicappers are giving him credit for. Watson is being given full control of Houston’s offense and I think he is ready to roll at the head of the Texans. With some solid run support the Texans should be able to score against a fairly mediocre New England defense. Again, not looking for Watson and the Texans to win this contest- but to keep it closer than the +14 pointspread line that is on the game now.
Best Sunday Football Bets – Texans Pointspread
Although conventional online NFL betting wisdom often tells us to stay away from very big pointspreads, I think they can also hold a lot of opportunity. Don’t get me wrong, it is not as easy as betting against NBA pointspreads in the last few years. However, 14 points is a lot for a team even like the Patriots against any professional football team (except perhaps my beloved Chicago Browns and more about them later). But when it comes to my NFL top picks for this coming weekend I think the Pats and the +14 pointspread are vulnerable.
Why? Well the magic that is known as Tom Brady is slowly but surely ageing. New England has as an unusual amount of injuries at the moment while the Texans are relatively healthy and JJ Watt should be back in the fold. Watson is an unknown entity to most NFL teams at this point and I think he will run the Patriots D ragged. The Moneyline is not up yet so if you are shopping for that you will need to check before game time. The Over Under is 44 which seems spot on to me. The only value I really see here is the Texans on the spread. As always make sure to do your own analysis and I will look at another couple of games before Sunday. And don’t forget to check out the Texans vs. Patriots game props– I didn’t see a ton of value in any of them but you might.
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