Online Sportsbook Odds – 2016 New England Patriots Preview

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Online sportsbook odds for the New England Patriots are usually thin on value, and this year didn’t look any different when I began putting together my Pats team summary. The four time Super Bowl Champions are perennial favorites to win it all in the NFL, primarily due to the long time productive pairing of head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. This has made the Boston based team huge fan favorites over the years which shows up in their online sportsbook odds.

Online Sportsbook Odds – New England Patriots

So why is the Patriots being popular bad for your bets? Well there are two ways that online sportsbooks set lines and odds for NFL football. The first way is the most obvious- you take a statistic based analysis of each football team and assign them what is typically called a “power ranking“. This is a measurement of all of the key offensive and defensive categories that in turn combine to give a team an overall ranking. When compared against other teams, the ranking determines the probable winner. Online sportsbooks then use these power rankings to determine favorites and set football lines and odds.

Betting on Football – NFL Picks

The second part of setting lines and odds is about balancing the public betting action that is generated by your power rankings. This is the part that confuses a lot of newer players, as the odds can drift away from what seems to be the logical and probable outcome of the game. For instance, the Dallas Cowboys are a fairly mediocre team at the moment- but as a very popular team they get a lot of money coming in on them from their huge fan base. Online sportsbook odds are then affected because bookmakers are always trying to balance the odds so they are not “offside” on one team or another. Sportsbooks aren’t trying to win or lose on a game – they are simply looking to make their cut on the “vigorish” or the fee they collect for handling bets. So when there is a lot of money coming in on one team, the line movers must make the odds on the other team more attractive to bettors regardless of the statistical power rankings.

New England Patriots Lines – Odds and Analysis

So, what does this mean to you when you are betting on the New England Patriots in the 2016/17 NFL season? Well, between New England being a talented team and usually the favorite, and with the Pats having a large fan base, bookmakers will be forced to almost certainly give New England shorter than “true” or statistical odds. This means for the smart bettor that there will not usually be enough value on the Patriots to make a straight bet worthwhile. Why? Because sometimes they will lose and you just won’t make it up on subsequent bets. However, look to include them in parlay bets where their value will be augmented by the compounding nature of parlays.

Online Sportsbook Odds and Lines – NFL Betting

In terms of specifics for this year, the big knock on the Patriots is of course that Tom Brady will miss the first four games due to “Deflategate”. Although you would think this would be a major hindrance to their season, the Pats are still big favorites at -225 to win the AFC East Division, a very respectable +300 to win the AFC Conference, and the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +650! So, it doesn’t look like Tom Brady’s suspension is skewing online sportsbook odds at all.

If Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy, and Brady gets what he needs from his receivers and running backs, then there is no reason that the New England Patriots can’t make a serious run at Super Bowl #5.

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