Election betting might seem a bit disrespectful, but given what has taken place so far it seems rather natural. Talk about grudge matches. The Republicans and Democrats are two teams with a historic rivalry that makes the Red Sox and Yankees rivalry look like a love-in. The 2016 Presidential election has taken this bitter feud to a whole new level, and with two of the most unpopular candidates ever, there doesn’t seem to be real “favorite”.
Election Betting – Hilary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
Election betting is essentially like making a proposition wager. It is a specific singular event and really is more like “Who will score the first 1st Down” than which team will win the game. In this case it is, “Which player will get 270 electoral college votes first?” So how do you handicap an entire election?
US Presidential Election Betting – Donald Trump
Just like handicapping any sports wager, it pays to not be sentimental. For the purposes of this discussion, our political affiliations have to be put aside so we can find the value and take advantage of it. The good news is that there is a ton of handicapping taking place already in the form of polls. The polls are a great way for us to get a handle on 2016 election betting, although we always need to take them with a grain of salt.
The polls in regards to Donald Trump are a perfect example. There is no doubt that he is a serious underdog at this point, but some polls have him with only a 2-3% chance of winning. That most likely doesn’t represent a general average of polls and as such Trump’s odds shouldn’t reflect that much disparity. Currently you can get Trump as a +260 underdog to win the 2016 Presidential Election. I think this price is actually a bit short but probably reflects how much action there has already been put down on Trump. I suspect you won’t get a larger price on The Donald, so when it comes to election betting trust your gut on whether you think he actually has a shot or not.
Who Will Win the US Election – Hilary Clinton
Keeping our political affiliations aside, it looks like it is going to be tough for Donald Trump to beat Hilary Clinton. Never say never of course, and the recent FBI email news looks like it is certainly making things closer. That being said, the Orange One has a large hill to climb and Hilary Clinton is currently a -480 favorite to become the next President of the United States of America.
At this point the handicapper in me says hammer the Hilary price and make a nice little profit. That being said I am wary of last minute revelations that may swing the election, so I would advise waiting until the last minute to place your bet. This way if Hillary remains ahead you can bet with confidence that there won’t be a last minute Trump saving explosion. Even if I liked Trump I would prefer a much bigger price than +260- so either way I might take a pass on him.
At the end of the day election betting is much more of an entertainment proposition bet as opposed to a true wager that can be handicapped. My recomendation is to wait until the last minute, and barring any last minute reversals of fortune, bet on Hilary to win the election. Then pour yourself a very large whiskey and hope for the best!
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